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Rising prices and the Fed’s efforts to combat them have put the economy in a tight spot. A recession looms if the global economy doesn’t catch some breaks in the form of unclogging supply chains, extra production of oil and gas, or a deal to let Ukraine export more wheat.
Like most problems, inflation is easier to solve in advance. The causes of today’s rising prices aren’t necessarily avoidable, but it is possible, even easy, to imagine the US economy being in a better position to deal with this pressure. When historians assess US economic policy in the 2010s, they’ll see a decade of missed opportunity.
For example, if gas prices are the main pain point today, wouldn’t it be better if the US had moved to decarbonize its economy more quickly? If rent is a major contributor to inflation, wouldn’t more houses help drive it down? If the supply chain is snarled, would deeper ports and better airports smooth things out?
Looking back at the policy debates of the last decade, it’s increasingly clear that the decision to let public investment fall to the lowest levels since World War II between 2014 and 2020 was a major mistake. The “jobless recovery” from the 2008 financial crisis left the Federal Reserve holding interest rates at near zero for five years before slow hiking began. Those low interest rates made public investment even more attractive than it might otherwise be.
To be clear, the idea of a missed opportunity shouldn’t suggest that now isn’t a good time to invest in infrastructure. It would be better to build now than not to build at all, but it would have been better still to have started building five years ago.
The US government isn’t investing as much as it once did–especially at the federal level.
One great case study in the power of timely public investment? The US government virtually saved Tesla with a $456 million loan after the 2008 crisis, a move decried by conservatives as government picking winners. Everybody won: Tesla went public, paid back the loan early, and became a leading EV maker, spurring other carmakers to up their commitments to green vehicles. Experts say a similar trick could help lead to innovation in other aspects of green energy, batteries and carbon removal projects. Meanwhile, EVs are approaching 9% of the global market share, which is small—but it’s still less competition at the pump, and fewer emissions in the future.
👀 Bitcoin’s crash is good for the climate
😞 Are Russian diamonds now conflict diamonds? Depends on who you ask
🚀 Why JetBlue is so desperate to buy Spirit
🤔 Everything you need to know about meme stocks
🤖 These three companies exemplify China’s future economy
🍿 How to interpret the new round of Netflix layoffs
🏘️ Airbnb is giving homeowners $100,000 to build wacky rentals
🌲 Spirit of the pine. North Korea has an approach to environmental protection that diverges from Western-led multilateral governance—and it may be more effective and resilient. So argues Dylan Levi King in a Palladium essay that covers the history of North Korea’s mythology and spiritual ties to its natural world, a kind of “eco-theology,” that ideologically embeds the motivation to preserve the environment.
💔 Ups and downs. The first 10 minutes of Pixar’s Up (2009) has reduced many a moviegoer to tears. The Ringer goes into the story behind the film’s prologue, which lays out the life of Carl, the movie’s main character, and the love of his life Ellie, as they go from children with dreams of adventure to adults facing the sobering realities of life. Over a decade later, this sequence in the Oscar award-winning movie continues to deeply move viewers.
📉 Chip slip. America is a global leader in the semiconductor industry, but it’s starting to lose its lead. With a skilled worker shortage and investment in startups and R&D on the decline, the US will need to take swift policy action if it wants to keep a technological edge. Dylan Patel, author of SemiAnalysis, details what’s going wrong and what can be done to ensure this critical piece of technology receives government support.
🥩 Nothing biting. There was big hype for the meatless meat market last year, with millions of dollars pouring in to fund new ventures. But enthusiasm seems to be fizzling out, Forbes writes, as sales stagnate in an overcrowded market. Having yet to land on a formula that brings back customers for more, some companies will likely be meeting chopping block, and others consolidating, to keep the meat-free dream alive.
🌐 Web3-ism? There are parallels one can draw between Web3 and multi-level marketing (MLM), according to crypto-writer Lars Doucet. In a guest post on Noahopinion, Doucet gives his take on blockchain believers, and their similarities to members of “Amway,” a billion-dollar MLM scheme that consumed his own family in the 90s. From lack of articulation about how the system works, to dogged belief in its potential, a strong liberatarian throughline, and cult-like tendencies, the two have more in common than one might think.
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